Palantir Reports on 2 November: Whether Commercial Overtakes Government Decides the Quarter
Palantir reports third-quarter results on 2 November after the close, with consensus at $0.41 EPS on $2.18 billion of revenue, up 84% on last year. The estimate implies slower sequential growth, so the test is whether commercial revenue, growing faster every quarter, overtakes the government segment.
Maz Vantage Research ·
Palantir Technologies reports third-quarter 2026 results on Monday, 2 November, after the market close. The street is looking for another quarter of very fast growth, and the company has beaten consensus on both lines in each of the last four reports. With the shares priced at more than 150 times trailing earnings, the size of the beat matters less than where the growth comes from. The question this quarter is whether the commercial business keeps accelerating fast enough to overtake government revenue.
What the street expects
Consensus calls for earnings per share of $0.41 (precisely $0.4072) on revenue of $2.18 billion. Against the same quarter last year, that is close to a doubling of earnings and an 84% rise in sales.
| Metric | Q3 2026 consensus | Q3 2025 actual | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.41 | $0.21 | +93.9% |
| Revenue | $2,177.3M | $1,181.1M | +84.3% |
Changes are simple arithmetic on the consensus and reported figures.
On a sequential basis, the revenue estimate is 12.5% above the $1,935.5 million reported for the second quarter. That is a slower step-up than the company has delivered recently: second-quarter revenue rose 18.6% on the first quarter, and first-quarter revenue rose 16.0% on the fourth quarter of 2025. Taken at face value, the consensus assumes some deceleration from the recent run rate.
The track record
Palantir has beaten both the EPS and revenue estimates in each of the last four quarters:
- Q2 2026: EPS $0.41 vs $0.34 expected; revenue $1,935.5M vs $1,812.3M (6.8% above).
- Q1 2026: EPS $0.33 vs $0.29; revenue $1,632.6M vs $1,542.3M (5.9% above).
- Q4 2025: EPS $0.25 vs $0.23; revenue $1,406.8M vs $1,341.0M (4.9% above).
- Q3 2025: EPS $0.21 vs $0.17; revenue $1,181.1M vs $1,091.8M (8.2% above).
Profitability has improved alongside growth. GAAP operating margin rose from 33.3% in the third quarter of 2025 to 40.9% in the fourth, 46.2% in the first quarter of 2026 and 47.1% in the second. Gross margin was 84.7% in the second quarter. Net income reached $1.06 billion in that quarter, against $475.6 million a year earlier.
The line that decides the quarter
Palantir reports two segments, Government and Commercial, and the commercial side has been growing faster every quarter. Year-on-year commercial revenue growth went from 72.9% in the third quarter of 2025 to 81.8%, then 95.1%, then 109.8% in the second quarter of 2026, when it reached $945.4 million. Government revenue grew strongly as well, by 79.0% to $990.0 million in the second quarter, but from a larger base and at a slower pace.
That left the two segments only $44.6 million apart in the second quarter, with Commercial making up 48.8% of revenue, up from 46.4% a year earlier. If commercial growth holds near its recent rate, the third quarter could be the first in which Commercial is the larger segment. That would be a meaningful marker for a company long seen mainly as a government software contractor, and it would point to demand that is broader and less tied to public budget cycles.
The other side of the test is the sequential slowdown built into the estimate. Consensus revenue implies about $242 million of new quarterly revenue, against roughly $303 million added between the first and second quarters (simple arithmetic on reported figures). A beat of the size Palantir has produced recently would mean growth is still accelerating. A narrow beat driven mainly by Government, with Commercial growth flattening, would read as weaker even with the headline numbers ahead of expectations.
Recent coverage sets the tone going into the print. JPMorgan initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a December 2027 price target of $262, according to reports on 29 October. Other headlines noted that the shares had made only modest gains in 2026 despite strong revenue growth.
Valuation and the Maz Rating
At $196.42, Palantir has a market value of about $451.9 billion. It trades at 155.9 times trailing earnings and 73.4 times trailing sales. The shares sit between a 52-week low of $106.37 and a high of $212.94. The analyst price-target consensus is $207.24, with a median of $230 and a range from $80 to $265.
Palantir carries a Maz Rating of 4.91 out of 5 (Strong Buy). The factor scores show how unusual its profile is. Growth (4.84), Profitability (4.77) and Financial Health (4.93) are near the top of the scale, helped by a balance sheet with almost no debt and a current ratio above 7. Momentum scores 4.25. Valuation scores 1.26, close to the bottom of the scale: almost every multiple sits in the most expensive few percent of the technology sector. The rating shows a business with excellent fundamentals at a valuation that leaves little room for disappointment.
Bottom line
The consensus is set below Palantir's recent pace, and the company has cleared every bar for four quarters. The headline beat is therefore the least informative part of Monday's release. The figure to watch is commercial revenue: whether its growth rate rises again and whether it overtakes Government for the first time. At this valuation, the mix and the momentum of growth will shape the reaction more than the EPS number.
This is a preview based on published consensus and filed accounts, not investment advice.