McDonald's Reports on 4 November: U.S. Sales, Not the EPS Beat, Decide the Quarter
McDonald's reports third-quarter results on 4 November before the open, with consensus at $3.38 a share on revenue of $7.28 billion, up about 5% and 3% on a year ago. With international growth slowing to 4.1% in the June quarter, U.S. segment revenue, which grew only 1.7%, is the line that decides whether the quarter reads as steady or recovering.
Maz Vantage Research ·
McDonald's reports third-quarter 2026 results on Wednesday, 4 November, before the market opens. It comes in as one of the weaker large consumer names of the year: Reuters noted the shares were down 18% year to date and on course for their worst annual performance since 2002. The stock closed at $258.12 on 30 October, against a 52-week range of $229.20 to $341.75. Consensus asks for modest growth. The question is where that growth comes from, and the filed segment figures point to one place: the United States.
What the street expects
Consensus for the September quarter is earnings of $3.38 a share on revenue of $7.28 billion.
| Metric | Q3 2026 consensus | Q3 2025 actual | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS (adjusted) | $3.38 | $3.22 | +5.0% |
| Revenue | $7.28bn | $7.08bn | +2.9% |
Changes are simple arithmetic on the consensus and the reported figures.
These are low-single-digit expectations for a company of McDonald's scale, and the EPS estimate equals the $3.38 reported for the June quarter. That puts the focus on the quality of the quarter rather than on the size of any beat.
The track record
Over the last four quarters McDonald's beat on earnings three times and missed once, while revenue was split evenly:
- Q2 2026: EPS $3.38 vs $3.32 expected (beat); revenue $7.10bn vs $7.13bn (slight miss).
- Q1 2026: EPS $2.83 vs $2.74 (beat); revenue $6.52bn vs $6.47bn (beat).
- Q4 2025: EPS $3.12 vs $3.05 (beat); revenue $7.01bn vs $6.84bn (beat).
- Q3 2025: EPS $3.22 vs $3.33 (miss); revenue $7.08bn vs $7.08bn (slight miss).
The earnings beats have been narrow, a few cents a share, and the two revenue misses were both under 1%. This is a company that tends to land close to consensus, which makes the composition of revenue more telling than the headline result.
The line that decides the quarter
The line that decides the quarter is U.S. segment revenue. McDonald's reports three segments: the United States, International Operated Markets, and International Developmental Licensed Markets and Corporate. Over the past year the international business has carried growth while the home market has barely grown. Year-on-year growth by segment, from the filed figures (our arithmetic):
| Quarter | United States | International Operated Markets |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | +1.2% | +10.5% |
| Q4 2025 | +5.5% | +12.9% |
| Q1 2026 | +3.6% | +14.0% |
| Q2 2026 | +1.7% | +4.1% |
Two things stand out. U.S. revenue grew just 1.7% in the June quarter, to $2.83 billion. And international growth, which had been running in double digits, slowed sharply to 4.1%. With the second engine cooling, the U.S. has to do more of the work for the quarter to look healthy. Last year's U.S. base is low ($2.77 billion in the third quarter of 2025, up only 1.2% on the year before), so the comparison is not demanding.
If U.S. revenue grows clearly faster than the 1.7% of the June quarter, that would suggest the home market is starting to recover after a year of slow growth. Recent sector news gives a mixed backdrop: Chipotle shares rose after same-store sales topped estimates, while Wendy's received a take-private offer. If U.S. growth stays near 1% to 2% and international growth stays in the low single digits, the company could still meet its EPS consensus through cost control, but the quarter would read as a business holding steady rather than recovering.
Margins are less of a worry. Operating margin was 47.0% in the June quarter against 47.2% a year earlier, and 47.4% in the third quarter of 2025 (operating income divided by revenue, our arithmetic). The franchise-heavy model protects profitability. That is why this quarter is about revenue.
Valuation and the Maz Rating
At $258.12, McDonald's has a market value of about $183 billion and trades at roughly 21 times trailing twelve-month GAAP diluted earnings of $12.31 a share (our arithmetic on the last four filed quarters). The analyst price-target consensus is $283.58, with a range of $230 to $350; the consensus sits about 10% above the last close.
The site gives McDonald's a Maz Rating of 2.96 out of 5 (Hold). The factor scores show why the rating is in the middle. Profitability is near the top of the scale at 4.90, reflecting the franchise model's margins. Financial Health scores 3.12 and Momentum 3.15. Growth is weak at 2.38, consistent with the segment figures above, and Valuation scores 1.30: measured on sales- and cash-flow-based multiples against consumer cyclical peers, the shares remain expensive even after this year's fall.
Bottom line
Consensus asks McDonald's for about 3% revenue growth and 5% EPS growth, and the company's record suggests it will land close to those figures. The result that will shape how the quarter is read is U.S. segment revenue. A clear pick-up from the June quarter's 1.7% would change the picture of the past year. Another quarter of 1% to 2% growth, with international growth also slowing, would leave the stock's low Growth score looking well founded.
This is a preview based on published consensus and filed accounts, not investment advice.