KKR Reports on 9 November: Fees Against Exits, Not the Beat, Decide the Quarter
KKR & Co. reports third-quarter 2026 results before the open on 9 November, with consensus at $1.58 adjusted EPS (up from $1.41 a year earlier) on revenue of about $2.66 billion. With the shares 32% below their 52-week high, the split between recurring fees and exit-driven realised income matters more than the headline number.
Maz Vantage Research ·
KKR & Co. reports third-quarter 2026 results before the market opens on Monday, 9 November. The firm has beaten the adjusted earnings consensus in three of its last four quarters, and the street expects growth again. The share price tells a different story: at $98.30, KKR trades 32% below its 52-week high of $144.84 (simple arithmetic on the quoted range), even after the business kept growing. This preview asks whether the earnings are coming from durable fees or from the deal exits the market is worried about.
What the street expects
The consensus calls for adjusted earnings of $1.58 per share on revenue of about $2.66 billion. A year ago, KKR reported adjusted EPS of $1.41 for the third quarter of 2025.
| Metric | Q3 2026 consensus | Q3 2025 actual | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.58 | $1.41 | +12.1% |
| Revenue (consensus basis) | $2.66B | not comparable | n/a |
The revenue line needs a caveat. The $5.46 billion that the data shows for the third quarter of 2025 is total GAAP revenue, which includes the insurance and fund results consolidated in KKR's accounts, while the 2026 estimates and results are on a narrower basis (the second quarter of 2026 came in at $2.76 billion on that basis against $5.66 billion of GAAP revenue). The two figures cannot be compared, so the table leaves the change blank rather than show a misleading 51% decline.
The track record
Over the last four reported quarters:
- Q2 2026: adjusted EPS $1.63 against a $1.43 estimate (beat); revenue $2.76B against $2.55B (beat).
- Q1 2026: adjusted EPS $1.39 against $1.26 (beat); revenue $2.35B against $2.18B (beat).
- Q4 2025: adjusted EPS $1.12 against $1.14 (miss); revenue $1.64B against $1.82B (miss).
- Q3 2025: adjusted EPS $1.41 against $1.30 (beat); the revenue estimate was on a different basis from the reported figure.
The pattern is mostly beats, but the fourth quarter of 2025 shows how quickly the numbers can fall short when activity slows: revenue came in about 10% below the estimate that quarter (simple arithmetic).
On a GAAP basis the picture is more volatile. Total revenue was $5.46 billion in Q3 2025, $5.69 billion in Q4 2025, $4.25 billion in Q1 2026 and $5.66 billion in Q2 2026. GAAP diluted EPS was $0.70 in the second quarter, against $0.50 a year earlier, and well below the adjusted $1.63, because GAAP results carry mark-to-market swings and the consolidated funds.
The line that decides the quarter
For an alternative asset manager, adjusted earnings combine two very different streams: management and other fees, which are largely locked in by long-dated capital, and realised performance income, which depends on selling investments at a profit. The first is steady. The second depends on the exit market.
That split is the question for this quarter. The share-price drawdown suggests the market doubts the exit stream, and recent news cuts both ways. In October KKR agreed to sell railcar lessor Infinity Transportation to Ares for an enterprise value of about $2.9 billion, a sign that large exits are still getting done, but the deal is subject to regulatory approval and was announced after the quarter closed. The same month the European Commission sent KKR a formal objection over information provided in the $26 billion NetCo deal, a reminder that large transactions also carry regulatory risk.
A beat built mainly on fees, with realisations holding up, would support the view that the business is more resilient than the share price implies. A beat that leans on one-off gains, or a miss like the one in the fourth quarter of 2025, would keep the debate open. The breakdown between fees and realised income in the release matters more than the headline EPS.
Valuation and the Maz Rating
At $98.30, KKR has a market capitalisation of about $88.2 billion and trades at 29.3 times trailing GAAP earnings. The analyst price-target consensus is $120.56 (median $121, range $97 to $138), about 23% above the current price (simple arithmetic).
The site's own model is less positive. KKR carries a Maz Rating of 1.97 out of 5 (Sell) within Financial Services. The factor scores explain why: Growth (3.72) and Profitability (3.51) score well, but Valuation (2.33), Financial Health (2.39) and Momentum (1.61) weigh on the total. The low Momentum score reflects the share-price decline; the Financial Health score sits alongside a consolidated debt-to-equity ratio of 1.63 times.
Bottom line
The consensus asks for 12% growth in adjusted EPS, and KKR has usually cleared its estimates. The question on Monday is the quality of that number: how much comes from recurring fees and how much from exits. That split, more than the headline beat or miss, is what the 32% drawdown is pricing.
This is a preview based on published consensus and filed accounts, not investment advice.