Gartner Q3 2026 Call: Contract Value Growth Accelerates Again, Guidance Raised, but Ex-Federal 4% Exit Rate Out of Reach

Gartner (NYSE: IT) is in the news because its third-quarter 2026 earnings call, held on 3 November 2026, came with results ahead of its own expectations and a higher full-year outlook, as summarised by Nasdaq on 4 November 2026.

Key takeaways

• Contract value (CV) was $5.3 billion, up 2.5% year over year, the third consecutive quarter of accelerating growth (CFO Craig Safian).
• Q3 revenue was $1.5 billion (up 2%, or 3% FX-neutral), EBITDA $364 million (up 8%) and adjusted EPS $3.59 (up 30%).
• Full-year guidance was raised: revenue at or above $6.405 billion, EBITDA at or above $1.615 billion, adjusted EPS at or above $14.65 and free cash flow at or above $1.235 billion.
• Management said excluding-federal CV growth is unlikely to reach the roughly 4% exit rate previously discussed by year-end, though total CV growth should keep accelerating.
• The Middle East conflict, technology-vendor layoffs and longer sales cycles were cited as headwinds to selling and renewals.

Bull case

• CEO Gene Hall said revenue, EBITDA, adjusted EPS and free cash flow were again ahead of expectations, and that retention improved. Safian put GTS wallet retention at 98% and GBS at 99%.
• Management reported about $240 million of new business in the quarter and about $15 million of net contract value increase from US federal clients, which Hall described as a mix of returning and new buyers.
• Hall said clients who bought broad AI tools without seeing benefits are coming back to Gartner for help building business cases, and that AI is the top topic for every role Gartner serves.
• Safian cited free cash flow of $1.3 billion over the last four quarters, return on invested capital of 34%, and $1.7 billion of buybacks over that period, which cut the share count by close to 15%.
• Conferences revenue was $86 million, with roughly 8% FX-neutral growth on a same-conference basis; consulting backlog was $217 million, up about 9%.

Bear case

• Deutsche Bank's Faiza Alwy pointed out that CV growth ex-federal decelerated a little more, and asked what was driving it. Safian pointed to the war in the Middle East making the selling and retention environment worse.
• Wells Fargo's analyst asked whether 4% CV growth is still the right exit rate. Safian said ex-federal CV is unlikely to reach that level by year-end.
• GTS new business was down 4% and GBS new business down 3% year over year, per Safian.
• Safian said sales cycles remain longer than historically, and that layoffs at large technology vendors have picked up again, making renewals harder.
• Hall acknowledged that some clients are more directly hit by AI, which is a tougher selling environment.
• Safian said analyst hiring will add cost back over the next several quarters.

What management said

• "Contract value growth accelerated for the third quarter in a row." - Gene Hall, CEO
• "We are increasing our full-year guidance across all of these measures." - Craig Safian, CFO
• "We typically don't chase the stock when it runs." - Craig Safian, CFO, on buybacks
• "AI is the single biggest topic people are interested in." - Gene Hall, CEO

Risks

• Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, previously a fast-growing region for Gartner, was described as a more challenging selling and retention environment.
• Layoffs at large technology vendors, tariffs, oil prices and uneven AI winners and losers affect client budgets (Hall and Safian).
• New business was down year over year in both GTS and GBS.
• Safian said Gartner's BTI transformation requires renewed analyst hiring, which will raise costs over time.
• US federal demand is normalising but remains a small part of CV, at 2% to 3% (Safian).

Outlook

• 2026 guidance: revenue at or above $6.405 billion (FX-neutral growth of 1%), EBITDA at or above $1.615 billion (margin at or above 25.2%), adjusted EPS at or above $14.65, free cash flow at or above $1.235 billion, based on 66 million diluted shares.
• Q4 EBITDA is expected at or above $390 million.
• Management expects total CV growth to keep accelerating through year-end and reiterated adjusted EPS growth above 12% on a three-year compound basis from 2025.
• It did not commit to a specific CV growth or exit-rate figure, citing a longstanding practice of not guiding on contract value, and did not give 2027 margin guidance. Safian said the standard price increase this year is closer to 3%.
• Capital allocation is unchanged: price-sensitive buybacks and tuck-in M&A.

Sources

• News: Nasdaq, "Gartner Q3 Earnings Call Highlights", 4 November 2026: https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/gartner-q3-earnings-call-highlights
• Earnings call transcript, Q3 2026 (3 November 2026), via Financial Modeling Prep: https://site.financialmodelingprep.com/ (earnings transcript endpoint, symbol IT, Q3 2026)