Eversource Q3 2026 Call: EPS $0.92, Guidance Narrowed to $4.62-$4.70 as FERC Refund and Connecticut Rate Case Loom

Eversource Energy (NYSE: ES) is in the news because it reported third-quarter 2026 results and held its earnings call on 5 November 2026; Nasdaq published a summary of the call on 7 November 2026 (Nasdaq: Eversource Energy Q3 Earnings Call Highlights). The call touched several themes in the wider economic news: utility affordability, interest-rate assumptions, inflation-indexed rates and the cost of grid investment.

Key takeaways

• Q3 GAAP and non-GAAP recurring EPS were $0.92, against GAAP EPS of $0.99 and non-GAAP recurring EPS of $1.19 a year earlier. CFO John Moreira attributed the decline to a lower FERC transmission ROE (9.57%), about $40 million of disallowed Connecticut storm costs, the absence of earnings from the sold Aquarion water business, and a higher effective tax rate.
• Management narrowed 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance to $4.62-$4.70, lifting the midpoint to $4.66, and reaffirmed its $26.5 billion five-year capital plan through 2030.
• The Revolution Wind project reached its commercial operations date, which CEO Joe Nolan said significantly reduces the risk of further financial obligations tied to the offshore wind asset sale.
• Two regulatory items dominate the outlook: the Connecticut Light & Power (CL&P) rate case (final decision expected in June 2027) and the FERC transmission ROE decision and refund process.
• ISO New England confirmed the joint Eversource-Avangrid proposal as the final solution for its long-term transmission RFP; Eversource's share is $700 million, described as upside to the current capital plan.

Bull case

• Guidance and growth: Moreira said the company is confident of earnings growth towards the upper half of its 5%-7% long-term range by 2028, citing a full year of CL&P rate relief, securitisation of about $1.1 billion of storm costs (Connecticut and New Hampshire), inflation-indexed annual rate adjustments, and the final rate base roll-in for EGMA on 1 November 2027.
• Balance sheet: Moreira reported FFO-to-debt of 15.4% (S&P) and 16.1% (Moody's) as of 30 June, with all three rating agencies on stable outlook. He said the company expects to hold about 100 basis points above downgrade thresholds even allowing for the FERC refund, and noted that Moody's and Fitch had indicated they would view the refund as a one-time item.
• Equity needs: Moreira said the plan requires $800 million to $1.1 billion of equity through 2030, expected in the back half of the plan, with no near-term need after $1.7 billion of net Aquarion proceeds.
• Investment opportunities: the $700 million ISO-NE transmission share, a potential DOE grant of about $50 million (DREAM initiative, pending final agreement, expected to begin in 2027), and the potential Connecticut smart-meter (AMI) programme. Over 500,000 smart meters have been installed in Massachusetts.
• Rate-case cost control: Moreira said the O&M component of the CL&P request is about $50 million (12% of the total), compared with nearly $100 million had O&M grown with inflation since the last rate order.

Bear case

• Earnings are lower year on year, and Moreira described several drivers as current headwinds (lower FERC ROE, storm-cost disallowance, loss of water-segment earnings, higher tax rate).
• Analysts pressed on the FERC refund. Carly Davenport (Goldman Sachs) asked what happens if the May 2027 deadline is missed; Moreira said it will be challenging to process the refund by then and that an extension request is possible but too early to predict. The refund recalculates about 154 months of load data, and Moreira said GAAP may require the final refund amount to be reflected in the financial statements before the court case concludes.
• Paul Zimbardo (Jefferies) asked whether the refund could become a probable charge; Moreira said probability and estimability tests are being worked through and gave no figure.
• Settlement in the CL&P case looks distant: Nolan said there is "a lot of wood to chop" before settlement can be discussed, and the company is also appealing parts of PURA's July storm-cost decision in Connecticut Superior Court.
• Moreira said the FERC ROE positions put forward by parties range from the low 9s to the high 9s (per cent), against Eversource's own filings of 11.39% and an alternative 10.79%; the 9.57% rate currently in effect came from FERC's 19 March decision.

What management said

• "We are entering the final months of the year with strong performance and positive momentum." - Joe Nolan, Chairman, President and CEO
• "We have not been in the rate arena since 2018." - Joe Nolan, on the CL&P rate case
• "I don't see a need for kind of near-term equity." - John Moreira, EVP and CFO
• "We're ready to invest $4 billion in Connecticut's distribution infrastructure over the next 5 years." - Joe Nolan

Risks

• FERC ROE: the decision on the prospective ROE (effective 30 November) is pending, and the retroactive refund appeal is before the D.C. Circuit, with final briefs due in early April 2027 and a ruling possible in late summer or early autumn 2027 (Moreira).
• Refund execution: the complexity of recalculating over ten years of load settlement data with ISO New England, and the risk that the May 2027 deadline cannot be met (Moreira).
• Connecticut regulation: the CL&P rate case outcome and timing (draft decision in May, final in June 2027), the storm-cost appeal, and the securitisation final decision expected at the end of January 2027 (Moreira).
• Offshore wind: contractual obligations with the asset buyer are to be settled in 2027; management believes its reserve is adequate (Nolan).
• Affordability: Nolan noted that New England has some of the highest electricity costs in the country and that affordability concerns are not going away.
• Interest rates: management said its long-term guidance assumes higher rates, and noted that inflation-indexed PBR mechanisms in Massachusetts and New Hampshire help mitigate this (Moreira).
• Massachusetts: 2027 is the year of the five-year review of the NSTAR Electric 10-year PBR plan, which may lead to rate activity in early 2028 (Moreira).

Outlook

• 2026 non-GAAP EPS guidance: $4.62-$4.70 (midpoint $4.66).
• Five-year capital plan of $26.5 billion through 2030 reaffirmed; a comprehensive update, including the ISO-NE project and potential Connecticut AMI, is promised with Q4 results.
• Earnings growth towards the upper half of the 5%-7% long-term target range by 2028.
• Cash from Connecticut storm-cost securitisation expected around mid-2027; New Hampshire securitisation expected early 2028.
• Management did not commit to a date for settlement of the CL&P case, to a figure for the FERC refund, or to whether the refund deadline will be met, and said the Connecticut AMI cost estimate is still being updated.

Sources

• News: Nasdaq - Eversource Energy Q3 Earnings Call Highlights, published 7 November 2026 (Nasdaq earnings RSS feed: https://www.nasdaq.com/feed/rssoutbound?category=Earnings)
• Transcript: Eversource Energy (ES) Q3 2026 earnings conference call, 5 November 2026, via the Financial Modeling Prep earnings transcript service (https://site.financialmodelingprep.com)
• Company materials referenced on the call: investors.eversource.com