Eli Lilly Reports on 29 October: Cardiometabolic Sales, Not EPS, Decide the Quarter
Eli Lilly reports Q3 results on 29 October before the open, with consensus at $5.70 EPS on $22.58 billion of revenue. With an EPS consensus that is hard to read, Cardiometabolic Health, now four-fifths of sales, is the line that decides the quarter.
Maz Vantage Research ·
Eli Lilly reports third-quarter results on Thursday, 29 October, before the market opens. The company has beaten both EPS and revenue consensus in each of the last four quarters, and the published consensus for this one sits below what Lilly already reported last quarter. The quarter turns on one segment: Cardiometabolic Health, the franchise that now makes up four-fifths of sales.
What the street expects
Analysts expect EPS of $5.70 on revenue of $22.58 billion. Compared with the same quarter of 2025, that is revenue growth of 28.3% alongside an 18.8% fall in EPS.
| Q3 | Consensus Q3 2026 | Actual Q3 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $22.58bn | $17.60bn | +28.3% |
| EPS | $5.70 | $7.02 | -18.8% |
Change is simple arithmetic on the consensus and the reported figure.
Two details stand out. First, the revenue consensus is 1.7% below the $22.97 billion Lilly reported in Q2 2026, so the street is modelling a small sequential decline. Second, the EPS consensus is well below both the year-ago $7.02 and the $8.38 reported last quarter. The data used here do not explain that gap, but it makes EPS a noisier signal than revenue for this report.
The track record
Lilly has beaten consensus on both lines for four straight quarters, and by wide margins:
- Q3 2025: EPS $7.02 vs $5.69 expected; revenue $17.60bn vs $16.05bn.
- Q4 2025: EPS $7.54 vs $6.91 expected; revenue $19.29bn vs $17.94bn.
- Q1 2026: EPS $8.55 vs $6.97 expected; revenue $19.80bn vs $17.82bn.
- Q2 2026: EPS $8.38 vs $6.40 expected; revenue $22.97bn vs $20.82bn.
Revenue beats over that period ranged from 7.5% to 11.1% above consensus (arithmetic on the figures above). That is an unusually persistent gap between forecasts and results for a company of this size, and analysts' forecasts have repeatedly lagged the reported figures.
Margins have moved with volume. Gross margin rose from 82.9% in Q3 2025 to 85.8% in Q2 2026, and operating margin from 47.6% to 54.2% over the same period (computed from the filed income statements).
The line that decides the quarter
Cardiometabolic Health carries the company. On the filed segment data:
| Quarter | Cardiometabolic Health revenue | Year-on-year growth |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | $15.76bn | +71.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $18.35bn | +61.8% |
Growth computed against Q1 2025 ($9.21bn) and Q2 2025 ($11.34bn).
In Q2 2026 the segment produced 79.9% of group revenue, up from 74.9% in Q3 2025. Sequentially, it grew 16.5% between Q1 and Q2. Oncology ($2.57bn in Q2) and Immunology ($1.42bn) are steady but too small to change the picture.
That makes the question simple. Against a year-ago Q3 figure of $13.18 billion, continued high growth would put the segment comfortably above the $18.35 billion of Q2, and total revenue would then clear a consensus that already assumes a slight sequential dip. A flat or lower Cardiometabolic number would be the first sign that the run of beats is ending.
The pipeline adds context but will not decide this quarter. On 25 October Lilly published new ESMO 2026 data on olomorasib, an investigational treatment for KRAS G12C-mutant non-small cell lung cancer. A 24/7 Wall St. preview noted the stock has run hard into the report, carrying a streak of consecutive EPS beats.
Valuation and the Maz Rating
At $1,273.46, Lilly has a market value of about $1.20 trillion and trades at 42.6 times trailing earnings and 15.0 times trailing sales. The shares are close to their 52-week high of $1,321.21 and about 7% above their 50-day average of $1,186.60. The dividend yield is 0.5%.
The analyst consensus price target is $1,355.25 (median $1,380.50), with a range from $940 to $1,500.
Lilly holds a Maz Rating of 4.67 out of 5 (Strong Buy). The factor scores are lopsided: Profitability 4.98, Growth 4.66 and Momentum 4.29 are near the top of the scale, Financial Health is 3.12, and Valuation is 1.48. The rating reflects an exceptional business priced for that, so the stock depends more than most on results continuing to exceed forecasts.
Bottom line
The EPS consensus is hard to interpret this quarter, which shifts the focus to revenue and, within it, Cardiometabolic Health. A segment figure above Q2's $18.35 billion would extend a pattern of large revenue beats; a flat or falling one would matter more than any headline EPS beat. Operating margin against the 54.2% of Q2 is the secondary check.
This is a preview based on published consensus and filed accounts, not investment advice.