Constellation Energy Reports on 9 November: Per-Share Earnings From a Bigger Fleet Decide the Quarter
Constellation Energy reports third-quarter results before the market opens on Monday, 9 November. Consensus calls for adjusted EPS of $3.90 on $9.23 billion of revenue, up 28% and 41% from a year ago. The quarter rests on whether a larger, more indebted base turns into higher per-share earnings and narrows the gap to GAAP profit.
Maz Vantage Research ·
Constellation Energy reports third-quarter results before the market opens on Monday, 9 November. The consensus calls for a large jump in earnings. The accounts already show a much bigger company than a year ago: 13% more shares, a higher depreciation charge and a doubled interest bill. The question for this quarter is whether that larger base turns into higher earnings per share, and whether reported profit starts to close the gap with the adjusted figure.
What the street expects
Consensus in Financial Modeling Prep's data is adjusted EPS of $3.90 on revenue of $9.23 billion. The third quarter covers the summer peak. A year ago, its $3.04 was the highest adjusted EPS of the last seven quarters in the data.
| Q3 | Consensus Q3 2026 | Actual Q3 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $3.90 | $3.04 | +28.3% |
| Revenue | $9.23B | $6.57B | +40.5% |
Change calculated from the two figures.
The estimate asks for more profit, not just more revenue. On our arithmetic, $3.90 across roughly 354 million weighted shares comes to about $1.38 billion of adjusted net income. That compares with about $0.95 billion a year ago, when $3.04 was earned on 313 million shares.
The track record
In the last four quarters, Constellation beat on EPS three times and on revenue three times:
- Q2 2026: adjusted EPS $2.55 vs $2.29, a beat; revenue $7.50B vs $7.73B, a miss.
- Q1 2026: EPS $2.74 vs $2.56; revenue $11.12B vs $8.46B. Beat on both.
- Q4 2025: EPS $2.30 vs $2.28; revenue $6.07B vs $5.60B. Beat on both.
- Q3 2025: EPS $3.04 vs $3.11, a miss; revenue $6.57B vs $6.20B, a beat.
The EPS beats have mostly been small, and revenue estimates have proved a poor guide in a business where power prices and hedging move the top line. Margins are just as uneven. Gross margin was 22.7% in the third quarter of 2025, 28.2% in the first quarter of 2026 and 17.7% in the second, when gross profit of $1.33 billion came in below the $1.36 billion of the same quarter a year earlier despite revenue up 23% (our calculation).
The line that decides the quarter
The line to watch is earnings per share from the enlarged business, and in particular the gap between adjusted and reported results.
That gap widened in the second quarter. Adjusted EPS of $2.55 compared with diluted GAAP EPS of $1.45, and GAAP operating income fell to $580 million from $951 million a year earlier. Part of the gap is the cost of the bigger base. Quarterly depreciation rose from $656 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 to $974 million in the first quarter of 2026. Interest expense went from $113 million to $283 million by the second quarter. The weighted share count rose from 313 million to 354 million at the same time.
A strong third quarter would show adjusted EPS at or above $3.90 and reported earnings moving closer to that figure, with gross margin back above the 17.7% of the second quarter. Commentary on long-term contracts should also count. In recent weeks Constellation has signed 20-year power agreements with Amazon and Google, reported to bring more than a gigawatt of capacity online over several years. Investors will want to know how quickly those deals start to show up in earnings.
Valuation and the Maz Rating
The shares trade at $245.72 after a 6.71% fall in the latest session. That is well below the 50-day average of $272.12 and the 200-day average of $279.40, and close to the 52-week low of $228.63 (high: $380.78). Market capitalisation is $87.1 billion. The trailing P/E is 23.9 and EV/EBITDA 13.9, with net debt at 2.96 times EBITDA. Free cash flow is thin: capital spending absorbed about 93% of operating cash flow over the last twelve months. The analyst price-target consensus is $341.85, in a range from $296 to $380.
The site gives Constellation a Maz Rating of 2.53 out of 5 (Hold). Financial Health (4.55) and Growth (3.91) score well. Valuation (1.93), Momentum (2.21) and Profitability (2.55) hold the rating down. That profile fits a company whose growth story is not yet showing in reported margins.
Bottom line
Monday's report needs to show that the larger Constellation earns more per share. The numbers to watch are adjusted EPS against $3.90, revenue against $9.23 billion, the size of the gap to GAAP earnings and the gross margin. With the stock near its 52-week low, the report will also show whether the new long-term contracts have changed the earnings outlook.
This is a preview based on published consensus and filed accounts, not investment advice.