Amgen Reports on 3 November: Growth Brands Against the Prolia Erosion Decide the Quarter

Amgen reports third-quarter 2026 results on Tuesday, 3 November, after the US market close. The consensus asks for little: modest growth on last year and roughly flat revenue against the second quarter. Behind that flat line, two forces pull against each other. Prolia and XGEVA are losing sales fast, while Repatha, EVENITY, TEZSPIRE and BLINCYTO keep growing. Whether the growth brands still outrun the erosion decides how this quarter reads.

What the street expects

Consensus calls for earnings per share of $5.79 on revenue of $10.07 billion.

Changes are simple arithmetic on the consensus and reported figures.

The sequential picture is more telling. Second-quarter revenue was $10,054 million, so the estimate implies growth of 0.1% from one quarter to the next. EPS is expected to fall from $6.29 to $5.79, a decline of 7.9%. Recent coverage points to higher spending: a 29 October headline noted that management had already warned costs will rise and asked whether profits will be squeezed.

The track record

Amgen has beaten the EPS consensus in each of the last four quarters, by roughly 8% to 12%. Revenue beats have varied more.

• Q2 2026: EPS $6.29 vs $5.62 expected; revenue $10,054M vs $9,426M (6.7% above).
• Q1 2026: EPS $5.15 vs $4.77; revenue $8,618M vs $8,575M (0.5% above).
• Q4 2025: EPS $5.29 vs $4.73; revenue $9,866M vs $9,474M (4.1% above).
• Q3 2025: EPS $5.64 vs $5.02; revenue $9,557M vs $8,966M (6.6% above).

The filed accounts show margins improving. Gross margin rose from 67.8% in the third quarter of 2025 to 72.0% in the second quarter of 2026. GAAP operating margin rose from 26.4% to 35.0% over the same period. Research and development spending was $1.87 billion in the second quarter, compared with $1.90 billion a year earlier.

The line that decides the quarter

Prolia and XGEVA, the denosumab franchise for bone health, now face biosimilar competition, and the decline shows in the reported product lines. In the second quarter of 2026, Prolia sales were $759 million, down from $1,122 million a year earlier. XGEVA fell from $532 million to $352 million. Together, the two products lost $543 million of quarterly revenue year on year, a drop of about a third.

Over the same period, four growth products added more than that:

• Repatha: $953M, up from $696M (+$257M)
• EVENITY: $714M, up from $518M (+$196M)
• TEZSPIRE: $486M, up from $342M (+$144M)
• BLINCYTO: $472M, up from $384M (+$88M)

Combined, these four added $685 million (simple arithmetic on reported product sales). That more than covered the denosumab decline, which explains why total revenue still grew 9.7% year on year in the second quarter.

The third-quarter comparison is harder. A year ago, Prolia and XGEVA together brought in $1,678 million ($1,139 million and $539 million). That is the largest base the erosion can work against. Meanwhile, Repatha ($794 million) and EVENITY ($541 million) start from higher levels than they did in the second quarter of last year. If the growth brands again add more than denosumab loses, the 5.3% revenue growth in the consensus looks achievable and the beat streak can continue. If Repatha or EVENITY slow while biosimilar erosion deepens, the flat sequential revenue estimate may prove to be the ceiling rather than the floor.

Amgen is also presenting pipeline data. Before the print, it said a Phase 3 study of dazodalibep in Sjögren's disease showed a statistically significant improvement in systemic disease activity, with data due at the ACR Convergence 2026 meeting. That matters for the long-term story, but it will not affect this quarter's revenue.

Valuation and the Maz Rating

At $460.73, Amgen has a market value of about $249.1 billion and closed on 29 October at its 52-week high. The low for the period is $288. The stock trades at 28.4 times trailing GAAP earnings and pays a quarterly dividend of $2.52, which it declared again on 27 October. The trailing yield is about 2.2%. The analyst price-target consensus is $403.79, with a median of $410 and a range of $230 to $500. The consensus target is about 12% below the current price (simple arithmetic), so the shares have run ahead of the average published target.

Amgen holds a Maz Rating of 4.35 out of 5 (Strong Buy). Profitability scores 4.98, close to the maximum, and Momentum scores 4.35 after the run in the shares. Growth scores 3.70. The two weaker factors are Valuation at 1.78, after the rerating, and Financial Health at 2.43. The second reflects a debt-to-equity ratio near 4.9 and interest coverage of about 4.7 times.

Bottom line

The consensus for Amgen is not demanding, and the company has beaten on earnings in every recent quarter. What matters on Tuesday is the product table. Repatha, EVENITY, TEZSPIRE and BLINCYTO need to keep adding more revenue than Prolia and XGEVA lose, against the toughest denosumab comparison of the year. With the shares at a 52-week high and above the average analyst target, the quality of revenue growth will likely count for more than the size of the EPS beat.

This is a preview based on published consensus and filed accounts, not investment advice.